tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-84517320289372636242012-01-24T01:00:10.729-05:00(Please note that this blog is no longer active. Please refer to the following: <a href="http://buy-high-sell-low.blogspot.com/"> http://buy-high-sell-low.blogspot.com </a> for new trading ideas.Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.comBlogger1281100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-535109555496377272008-09-21T13:48:00.010-04:002009-01-21T20:27:44.229-05:00

The stock and commodities markets obviously experienced a tremendous amount of volatility for this past week. However, what may not seem as obvious is the amount of government intervention/manipulation that went on behind the scenes.With markets in free fall this week, central banks injected an unfathomable amount of liquidity into the markets. When money is injected into circulation, it is

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-69441061858221198232008-09-14T06:16:00.003-04:002008-09-15T17:09:53.007-04:00

The above chart is a weekly chart of the XAU gold stocks index. I have said in several previous posts that gold stocks needed to hold the support area outlined above for me to remain bullish on the sector.During this past week, it appeared that the gold bulls had capitulated, and the bears would close gold stocks well below support. However, towards the end of the week, the bulls miraculously

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-28004602707097805752008-09-13T09:56:00.003-04:002008-09-13T10:41:14.227-04:00

Another topic I wanted to bring up was silver and the notion that there is a manipulation in the futures market. I have read and listened to many experts, such as Bill Murphy, who have always stated that the gold and silver markets are manipulated. I felt that this could be true, but at the same time also felt skeptical. However, after witnessing what has happened over the last month with regard

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-36135942549062240462008-09-06T08:03:00.016-04:002008-09-06T08:33:24.405-04:00

The above chart is a weekly chart of GDX. Despite another round of declining prices, gold stocks are still holing this important support area. In my opinion, this level of support is key, and if it is taken out, I will have a difficult time remaining bullish on the sector.On the other hand, the Euro has broken down badly, and is no longer in a weekly uptrend:The fact that the Euro has broken

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-70898159318224807602008-08-30T07:19:00.019-04:002008-09-02T00:29:34.040-04:00

The above chart is a monthly chart of the XAU gold and silver stocks index. This is the same chart I had posted two weeks ago. Since this is a monthly chart, the candle to the extreme right of the chart has now formed, and a new candle will begin forming on Tuesday.August's monthly candle descended to the upward sloping trend line, and decisively bounced off this level. Furthermore, the price

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-43143180216420323752008-08-28T06:47:00.008-04:002008-08-28T10:58:33.415-04:00

The following is a quotation from the novel Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, written in 1923 by Edwin Lefevre. This quotation helped reinforce in my mind the importance trading in the direction of the primary move, and to avoid the noise of short-term fluctuations.His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkeybehind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habitof strutting

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-13491042368693648782008-08-16T06:40:00.008-04:002008-08-16T07:28:33.307-04:00

In this post, I will attempt to analyze the severity of this week's sell off, and contrast it with the sell off we had this time last year.Much of the weakness we have seen in the gold market comes from a rapidly appreciating US. Dollar:As the above chart illustrates, the US Dollar has exploded past its 50 day and 200 day moving averages, which is short-term bullish. However, the 200 day moving

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-77238044959340859412008-08-10T13:28:00.013-04:002008-08-11T20:48:58.136-04:00

For this past week, commodities corrected quite dramatically, which, I am sure, has left many commodity bulls feeling somewhat nervous. If this is the case, I hope that this post will help assuage any doubts.The first chart is that of the XAU. It is a monthly chart that goes back until 1981:In my view, the XAU is still in a very powerful bull market. This is evidenced by the fact that over the

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-66511223395660568072008-08-06T08:50:00.005-04:002008-08-06T18:25:34.895-04:00

A few weeks ago, Stockcharts.com introduced Renko charts, and, since that time, I have really developed an appreciation for this charting style. Renko charts, like candle charts, are a Japanese charting style. Renko charts differ in that they do not factor in the passage of time, and, thus, only use price in their construction.I feel that Renko charts can be used very effectively to determine

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-70470076735633798662008-07-31T07:41:00.004-04:002008-12-10T04:37:02.906-05:00

With the last video I posted on this site, I recommended a weekly webcast called the Financial Sense News Hour. One of the advantages of listening to this program is that one can become exposed to the ideas of many different guest speakers.Peter Schiff is a regular contributor to this internet radio show, and is where I first came across his ideologies. Peter Schiff is a stock broker, money

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-50543774573559031332008-07-27T12:13:00.006-04:002008-12-10T04:37:03.722-05:00

In the previous post, I mentioned the importance of managing risk by hedging. I also talked about how profitable traders tend to buy strength and short sell weakness. One way of following both principles is to buy a company that is showing strong relative strength, and short sell the index.The following chart shows Gold Corp, symbol G.to, divided by an ETF that tracks the entire gold stocks

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-39289635483340062032008-07-19T08:43:00.006-04:002008-12-10T04:37:03.922-05:00

One trait common amongst all successful traders is the ability to manage risk. Experienced traders ask not how much money a trade can potentially make, but how much money a trade could potentially lose. Put another way, not losing money is more important than making money.When I first started trading, I would usually bet all of my account on a single trade. I have learned (the hard way) that this

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-81425462491298365832008-07-16T07:15:00.007-04:002008-07-16T10:56:44.256-04:00

I feel that when someone works hard, does research, and makes a bold forecast that eventually comes to fruition several years later, that person should be given credit. Along with Richard Heinberg, who I mentioned last time, Matt Simmons is one such person.Matt Simmons, who spent his entire career working with the oil industry, is author of Twilight in the Desert. Simmons also appears frequently

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-15377235008604628902008-07-13T14:16:00.008-04:002008-12-10T04:37:04.726-05:00

Over the past year on this site, I have attempted to use technical analysis and intermarket analysis to help better understand the gold market. During this time I think I have made some fairly decent calls, but have also made mistakes along the way. One of the advantages of maintaining this blog is that I can go back and read old posts and see exactly what I was thinking. I can analyze what

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-25887286207789013072008-07-09T10:54:00.009-04:002008-12-10T04:37:05.399-05:00

The chart below shows a chart of an ETF that follows the price of crude oil, which has the ticker USO, on the top panel, and a chart breaking down oils COT structure on the bottom panel: I explained the way I interpret this type of chart in this post. In a nutshell, you want to be buying when the commercials have a small short position, and you want to be selling when the large speculators are

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-34403051735918994792008-07-09T09:22:00.000-04:002008-07-11T09:08:57.245-04:00

Richard Heinberg is the author of The Party's Over, Power Down, and Peak Everything. I highly recommend all three books, but I would recommend reading the author's first book to start, as it goes over the theory of peak oil on a general level, whereas his other books are more specific and philosophical in nature.Personally, reading these books awakened me to a whole new way of thinking, and had

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-26912524667606785992008-07-06T09:27:00.005-04:002008-12-10T04:37:05.598-05:00

As I have mentioned before on this site, Horizon ETFs are a type of investment that allow traders to go long or short a particular market with 200% daily exposure. For example, this organization has two ETFs that track natural gas:HNU-which stands for Horizon Natural gas UpHND-which stands for Horizon Natural gas DownThis means that if in a given day, the price of natural gas rises by, say, 2%,

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-7345749186973793752008-06-29T12:12:00.010-04:002008-12-10T04:37:06.122-05:00

Above is a weekly chart showing GDX, the gold stocks ETF. What I wanted to point out is that gold stocks experienced a very nice bounce off a major area of support. I now feel that the short term trend for gold stocks has moved from neutral to up, so I decided to go long this sector, and will remain long until the short term trend changes.The next chart is a weekly chart of silver, which also

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-14558352855259849872008-06-19T20:29:00.009-04:002008-12-10T04:37:06.575-05:00

Because the price of gold seems to be going through what is known as the summer doldrums, which is basically a period where there is no trend and a time where it can be more difficult to make profitable trades, I have decided to focus this post on another topic for the meantime.What I will try to illustrate here is the effects of excessive money printing and inflation on real stock market returns

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-23362393042781998212008-06-15T08:10:00.006-04:002008-12-10T04:37:07.273-05:00

The above chart is a daily chart of the US Dollar Index. As you can see, the Dollar recently broke out of a bullish triangle formation and is now trending up. This fact has put downward pressure on both gold and silver, and I think there is a good chance that this will continue happening for at least the short term.One commodity that is catching my eye, and does not seem to have been affected by

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-21532788475115116632008-06-07T10:46:00.008-04:002008-12-10T04:37:07.900-05:00

If yesterday's market activity could not compel me to write for this blog, then I don't think anything would. Besides the obvious headlines you have probably already read regarding Crude Oil and the Dow Jones, there are many other interesting developments that I feel are going on behind the scenes that are just as significant.In the previous post that I wrote, I mentioned that the VIX was

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-85050887144563341762008-05-24T15:36:00.010-04:002008-12-10T04:37:08.916-05:00

I thought it would be a good idea to a have a mid-vacation update. Here are five charts that I found interesting this week:1)2)3)4)5)Please click on the charts in order to read the annotations. Thanks for looking, and have a profitable week.

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-14721906947464899092008-05-04T12:24:00.008-04:002008-12-10T04:37:09.625-05:00

For this past week, the price of gold lost about $32.00 an ounce, and gold stocks, as measured by the XAU lost another 4% for the week. When gold goes through these normal corrections, I usually refer to the monthly charts, so that I do not lose sight of the larger picture. The chart below is monthly chart of the XAU:The above chart goes back until 1985, and each candle represents one month of

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-71315448834509868042008-04-27T10:45:00.012-04:002008-12-10T04:37:10.425-05:00

Gold dropped about $26.00 dollars an ounce this week, and gold stocks fared even worse, with the XAU losing 6.6% for the week. In the previous post I wrote on Tuesday, I said that an explosive move was likely due. Hopefully, from what I have been writing recently, you were able deduce which way I thought that move would be.The following chart is a daily chart of the HUI index. I posted this same

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-32055638188651322952008-04-22T09:11:00.005-04:002008-12-10T04:37:10.563-05:00

The following chart shows a gold index called the Dow Jones United States Precious Metals index, (DJUSPM). The index has a different gold stocks composition than the HUI or XAU Indices, and, as such, can sometimes give you a different perspective.The main point in the above chart is that this index continues to trade sideways, within a very narrow band. As this is occurring, the bollinger bands

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-19725664965160977302008-04-19T05:40:00.009-04:002008-12-10T04:37:11.203-05:00

Gold dropped about $12.00 this week, while gold stocks and silver fared slightly better. In this post, I am going to reexamine the charts that I posted two weeks ago, since I believe that post explains most of what happened this week.The first chart we have is a daily candle chart of gold:Last month, when gold reached $1000 an ounce, I began hedging my long term precious metals investment by

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-43179426232645599932008-04-13T11:49:00.006-04:002008-12-10T04:37:11.629-05:00

Gold and gold stocks were more or less unchanged for this past week. In the last two posts, I said that I was getting mixed messages from the charts I analyze, which seems to make sense now, as the bulls and bears are at about equal force.I doubt, however, that gold stocks will continue to grind sideways for much longer. Let's have a look at a daily chart of the HUI:What I am concerned about is

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-15503726849060264182008-04-10T07:18:00.010-04:002008-12-10T04:37:12.378-05:00

In this post, I thought I would discuss some neat new investment products that I have recently come across. The first one is a product you may have heard of. It is called the Uranium Participation Corp, and, according to their corporate website, the fund's objective is to:invest substantially all of its assets in uranium, either in the form of uranium oxide in concentrates or uranium

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-73024666490902592752008-04-06T13:48:00.012-04:002008-12-10T04:37:13.489-05:00

Gold started the week with very little strength, but firmed up towards the end, closing down only about 2.5% for the week. I mentioned in the last post that I was getting mixed signals, and I was not confident of which direction gold would pursue.Since it is not always possible to feel confident about the direction of a market, one must develop a method for making money in the market in times of

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-88094786726495983682008-03-30T18:10:00.006-04:002008-12-10T04:37:14.147-05:00

Gold was able to reverse last week's downward momentum, and closed up about $16.00 for the week. Silver also retraced some of last week's severe pull back, gaining more than 6%. So, is the correction over, with new highs on the way, or is this round one of the correction?Let's have a look at a weekly silver chart:In the above chart, I am attempting to contrast the correction of May 2006, to the

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-4694900871763159402008-03-21T10:47:00.015-04:002008-12-10T04:37:15.223-05:00

For this past week, gold dropped $79.50, and silver lost an astonishing 18.42%. This post will attempt to analyze the extent of the damage, and try to determine what to expect next.The first chart that I would like to log is a daily chart of GLD:What you will observe in the above chart is that GLD failed exactly at the psychologically significant $100.00 area. The bears gained control of GLD at

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-1294797666464721102008-03-16T13:37:00.008-04:002008-12-10T04:37:16.464-05:00

For this past week, gold rose by about $25.00 an ounce, closing on Friday at $999.50 after making a brief foray into quadruple digits. Silver, on the hand, failed to reach a new high, but was still up 42 cents for the week.Let's get right into the charts by looking at a really long term view of the yellow metal. The following chart is a monthly chart of gold, and goes back to about 1990:My goal

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-11013813252948903922008-03-09T10:33:00.010-04:002008-12-10T04:37:17.442-05:00

Last week saw Crude Oil and the Euro hitting new all time highs, and the US Dollar Index hitting a new all time low. At the same time, gold was flat for the week, closing on Friday at the same point it opened at on Monday.The first chart that I'd like to keep in this blog for my records is a weekly chart of silver. Silver has been white hot for the last few months, and I hope this following

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-53038575822785776522008-03-01T08:06:00.009-05:002008-12-10T04:37:18.157-05:00

This past week was another satisfying one for commodity bulls and US Dollar bears. Gold rose another $27.00 an ounce to reach yet another all time high, silver experienced a blistering rally this week of 10.42%, and even the price of nickel was up about 14% between the span of 2 days.At the same time, the US dollar melted down again, breaking through major support into what is now literally

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-21089537381490547282008-02-24T10:45:00.009-05:002008-12-10T04:37:19.017-05:00

Commodities had another spectacular week, with gold reaching yet another all time nominal high, and silver exploding higher by 6.29% in Canadian dollar terms. Oil was also strong this week, increasing by about 3.5%.The first chart that caught my eye this week was a weekly chart of the XAU. Prior to this week, the stocks were underperforming bullion, but that may change:My view is that gold

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-77661062156045864102008-02-16T13:42:00.012-05:002008-12-10T04:37:19.913-05:00

Last week, precious metals were more or less flat, which is a bit unusual considering how strongly the Euro rallied. In this post, I'll show some charts that caught my eye this week.Firstly, in the chart below, we have a chart of USO, the United States Oil fund ETF, beneath a chart of Crude Oil's Commitment of Trader structure. Using this technique is not perfect, but generally, clues can be

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-25131291843089516412008-02-10T13:39:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:20.661-05:00

Last week began with gold getting hit quite hard by the bears, but ended with gold actually up by about 9 dollars. Gold held up surprisingly well considering the Euro basically collapsed at a key level of resistance last week.Let's have another look at the Euro Index to see what we can expect to see next. The following image shows a chart of the Euro's Commitment of Trader structure on the top,

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-10223005050871189952008-02-01T08:25:00.001-05:002008-12-10T04:37:21.174-05:00

For this week, gold reached new all time highs yet again. Gold seems to be getting a little frothy again, and a pull back may come next week. That being said, the trend is still clearly up, so I would not bet money against this market.Gold could potentially run into trouble if the US Dollar Index is able to find support. The USDX is in the 75 zone, which was support last time around. If there is

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-83098877630414722832008-01-30T07:36:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:21.298-05:00

Two posts ago, I mentioned that the asset class that would likely perform well for the next several years would be physical resources. Not resource stocks, but physical resources, in your possession. This post will discuss how to go about doing that.For the last 3 years, I have been bullish on Silver, and believe strongly in physical bullion ownership. Because global equity markets are falling

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-51979199758034416652008-01-27T09:22:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:21.917-05:00

For this past week, gold was up $29.00 an ounce, reaching yet another all time high. Also, the TSX basically fell apart on Monday, but, from there, was able to stage an oversold rally.During these times of extreme volatility, interesting chart formations usually begin to appear, and this week, the TSX put in a candle formation know as the bullish counterattack line. In his book, Japanese

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-66305260986630698652008-01-20T16:27:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:22.638-05:00

Just like every other stock market, the TSX Composite Index was pummeled this last week. I mentioned last weekend that the TSX was being compressed into an area clearly defined by support and resistance. This compressed energy exploded to the downside, which was an event accurately predicted in this blog. Here is a daily chart outlining the damage:I think that for next week, there is a strong

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-90570155352441346202008-01-17T08:44:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:22.838-05:00

On the previous post, I showed a chart of an ETF that does twice the daily performance of the Canadian energy sector. This ETF was a Horizon Beta Pro ETF and, yesterday, this same organization introduced 4 new ETFs.These 4 ETFs, rather than allowing you to gain exposure to Energy Stocks, allow you to gain exposure to the actual commodities. Here are the ticker symbols:• Horizons BetaPro NYMEX®

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-24941078663856343792008-01-13T07:46:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:23.568-05:00

I think it has been 3 weeks since there was a post to this site. The reason for this is that I have moved into a new apartment, and it took some time to get settled in, and to get an internet connection reestablished. Going forward, there will be posts every weekend on this site, at a very minimum.I left off saying in the previous post that the bearish momentum was being lost, and it looked

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-61294162995163353412007-12-22T08:13:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:23.875-05:00

Gold stocks started the week continuing last week's bearish momentum, but that momentum was lost toward the end of the week. Both Canadian and American gold stocks are retesting the breakdown point that occurred on Monday. This chart, showing Canadian Gold stocks, shows what I mean:The above chart is a daily chart of an ETF that does twice the performance of the Canadian Gold Stocks Index, and

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-84327333844567097142007-12-17T08:34:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:24.239-05:00

Everyday I examine 81 charts which are related to the gold market. Besides the 3 posted already, here are 2 more charts that caught my eye this week. First we have a daily chart of GDX:I mentioned in another post that I thought gold stocks were forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern. This pattern is becoming more mature, and, in my view, has been activated. The downside target is what is

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-59443746201184950632007-12-16T11:12:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:24.805-05:00

Many interesting developments occurred for this past week, so this week's posts will be more in depth than usual. Let's start off by looking at the Euro versus US Dollar. This currency pair broke down quite badly this week. In fact, the Euro did not experience this level of selling in one day since 2004. Here is a point and figure chart that outlines the damage:This chart has 0.5 box size

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-10857968750115079322007-12-11T22:45:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:25.137-05:00

We all know what happened today, so I won't go into the details. In this post I'll just show two charts that may give you a perspective not shown in other sites. Firstly, we have a daily a chart of the TSX:You'll have to click on the chart to read the annotations. The main thing is that the TSX failed at the confluence of two sources of resistance, and that the candlestick put in today is

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-69381260679586102852007-12-09T09:48:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:25.763-05:00

Gold was up marginally this week, and North American gold stocks were more or less unchanged. Gold stocks have been treading water for a while now, but probably not for much longer, as this post will show.First let's have a look at the Gold stocks ETF, GDX. This is a daily chart that covers about 6 months of price action:The annotations should be self explanatory, so I won't go into too much

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-24172656173024226622007-12-06T22:16:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:26.265-05:00

This is a chart that caught my eye today, so I thought I'd make it apart of a mini post. The following chart is a daily chart of Kinross Gold. You will have to click on the image to get a more legible view.The main point I wanted to make in the above chart is that Kinross is bouncing off overhead gap resistance at the $18.50 mark. The recent price action also appears to be forming some sort

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-36245776553027981412007-12-01T06:16:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:26.764-05:00

For this past week, gold lost $35.60, and gold stocks, as measured by GDX, lost 5.10%. In this post, I will show more evidence that commodities and gold stocks are in corrective mode.In last week's post, I suggested that gold priced in Canadian Dollars was testing a key level of resistance. Last week's price action has proven that it has failed quite miserably at this test. The chart below

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-55161977853824530052007-11-25T10:58:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:27.494-05:00

Because gold is basically the US Dollar's nemesis, and vice versa, I thought I would show this relationship another way. To do this, I looked at the inverse of the US Dollar. The excellent website, Stockcharts.com, allows you to invert the price of any stock by taking the symbol '$one', and dividing it by the stock. Here is a chart that uses this technique:The chart itself actually shows the

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-45912049411186829462007-11-24T10:57:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:27.772-05:00

For this past week, gold bullion rose by $37.70 or 4.79%, and gold stocks, as expressed by GDX, increased by 4.05%. There were some unusual developments this week as well. For example, the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar fell simultaneously, which very rarely happens. Also the TSX ended lower for the week despite a bounce back in commodity prices.The fact that the Canadian dollar fell while

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-1724828405644377792007-11-17T09:52:00.000-05:002008-12-10T04:37:28.369-05:00

For this past week, gold was down $47.70, and gold stocks, as measured by GDX, were down by 6.68%. As well, the resource laden TSX Composite Index dropped another 340 points this week.This post will provide additional evidence to show that commodities are in correction mode. Let's first have a look at silver. Here is a daily chart of silver going back to February 2006:What I find significant

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-72938618921198596612007-11-11T10:53:00.001-05:002008-12-10T04:37:29.091-05:00

For this past week, gold bullion tacked on another $26.20 and silver rose by 95 cents. This, however, was not enough to keep gold stocks afloat, as GDX fell .79% for the week. So, resource stocks are doing much worse than the price of the resources themselves. This is further evidenced by the fact that the TSX fell nearly 500 points this week on rising commodity prices.This post will present

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-25620259240694776632007-11-03T22:36:00.001-04:002008-12-10T04:37:29.755-05:00

For this past week, gold bullion increased in price by $21.00, or 2.67%. However, and this is amazing, gold denominated in Canadian Dollars actually fell. This week, the Canadian Dollar rose relative to the US Dollar by 3.03%, so that means the Canadian gold holders lost .36%.In this post, there will be quite a few charts. Since in the previous post, we had a look at oil, let's see how oil

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-88456474581374897202007-11-01T09:35:00.001-04:002008-12-10T04:37:29.911-05:00

The price of oil has been in the news as of late, so I thought I would throw a chart up showing the weekly price action of it. The chart below is actually of an ETF that tracks the price of oil. The ticker symbol is USO, whereas the ticker symbol of oil itself is $WTIC.This chart contains a lot of information, so it may take some time to make sense of it. I would recommend clicking on the image

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-1790359101108509262007-10-31T08:21:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:30.015-05:00

When analyzing gold stocks, I try to look at as many indexes as possible. Some indexes that I watch are the HUI, the XAU, GDX, and XGD.to. The advantage of this is that occasionally one of these indexes will give a heads up not provided by another index.An example of this happened on Monday, where XGD formed a text-book shooting star, while GDX closed very strongly that day. GDX gapped down

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-41012610770947440442007-10-27T06:55:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:30.307-05:00

This week, the price of gold was up by just under $20.00 an ounce, and gold stocks, as measured by GDX increased by 3.42%. My gold stocks short position gave back all the profits made last week, but I will continue to hold these positions, as long as they do not exceed their October 15th high.With gold rising so quickly, you may think that it would be insane to short gold stocks, but then again,

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-29933709808027871982007-10-20T10:29:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:30.485-05:00

As you probably know, stock markets world wide experienced significant corrections yesterday. Many people blame this on the 20th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash, but I think that it was quite clear that a correction was coming, no matter what the reason behind it.In the last post, I said that gold stocks were looking weak, and right now I still feel that they are looking weak. Some

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-86223040231833771392007-10-16T07:28:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:31.034-05:00

Last week there were two posts made suggesting that the Euro had topped and the US Dollar had bottomed. I still feel this way right now. As a consequence to this, gold stocks may have topped yesterday.Ever since I turned bearish last week, gold stocks have continued to rise, but they have done so in a fashion not normally associated with a healthy bull market. The daily chart of the GDX, for

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-43502752808301050632007-10-13T14:28:00.001-04:002007-10-13T14:30:28.476-04:00

I have been a subscriber of John Murphy's Market Message for a long time. I have an infinite amount of respect for Mr. Murphy, for the books that he has written, and the analysis he conducts. Recently, video Market Messages have been made available. Here is one such video. You can subscribe to Murphy's Market Message through StockCharts.comThis blog surely would not exist if it were not for

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-33701116673237843632007-10-10T07:03:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:31.280-05:00

Ever since this site was started in June, I have been very bearish on the US Dollar for the long-term. But even though the currency is in a powerful bear market, it still experiences counter-trend bounces, and one of these bounces may now be in the cards.It is tougher now to pick bottoms in the US Dollar, because it is no longer contained in a descending wedge like it used to be, and the dollar

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-86119994138269061642007-10-08T09:48:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:31.743-05:00

For the Canadians reading this site, I hope that you had an enjoyable Thanksgiving, and for the Americans reading this, my apologies for not posting for a while. The last post that was made was in regards to silver holding support. Here is an update on that chart:The main thing to note is that when silver descended to the 200 day moving average, it immediately experienced buying pressure.

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-54115424138870296972007-10-02T20:48:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:31.831-05:00

Today, precious metals investors, including myself, had to endure a bit of pain as gold and silver experienced some profit taking. What is important now is to determine what we can expect from here on in. In my opinion, there was no technical damage to any of the precious metals charts today.The daily silver chart, for example, is above three layers of support, which, coincidentally, are all in

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-30700665994083546892007-09-30T09:56:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:33.347-05:00

The month of September was an incredible one for all gold bugs out there. The XAU gold stocks index increased in value by 19.88% during this month. As well, gold bullion tacked on $69.90 an ounce, increasing 10.51%, and silver, for the first time in a while, rose by a faster pace, increasing in value by 13.81%.As predicted, the US Dollar broke critical support at 80, and melted down after that

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-81674150027690824422007-09-29T08:06:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:33.619-05:00

If you feel that silver will rise, then probably the best way to capitalize on this opinion is to buy the silver ETF. However, I prefer to hold silver stocks, as there can be more leverage in doing so, and that way I don't have to convert my Canadian Dollars into US Dollars to buy the ETF.The problem with buying silver stocks is determining which ones to buy. Ideally, there would be a silver

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-50883396175488681012007-09-24T20:33:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:34.278-05:00

The previous post discussed some significant breakouts in the Euro charts, and the post before that showed some major developments in the US Dollar chart. All of this was meant to be indirect bullish evidence in favour of gold and gold stocks. In this post, let's have a look at gold stocks directly.In order to understand the upcoming chart, I would urge you to read the following two articles:

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-15250814648038340832007-09-22T09:51:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:34.758-05:00

In the last 5 weeks, the XAU has shot up in value by more than 40%. It is important to stay disciplined during these times, and to not let massive profits cloud your judgment. This post will look at why gold stocks have blasted off, and, more importantly, if it's still a good time to buy in a objective and disciplined manner.As mentioned in the previous post, some of gold's strength is coming

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-63475873646552469192007-09-20T18:55:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:35.097-05:00

Today, gold exploded past its old May 2006 high without the slightest bit of hesitation. I was anticipating at least a brief respite at this level, but gold's powerful momentum proved otherwise. You may be wondering why gold has been doing so well lately. I will try to explain why in this post.I believe that much of the yellow metal's strength is being derived from a weak US Dollar. On a

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-88136963734688569082007-09-19T20:31:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:35.712-05:00

About this time last month, gold and gold stocks, as well as silver experienced what some might call a crash. From these lows, we have seen a spectacular rebound, with gold bouncing back almost 80 dollars an ounce. However, it is impossible for this rebound to continue at this pace forever. In this post I will present evidence that suggests that gold may be at a point where it needs to take

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-77728443537896516472007-09-16T08:28:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:35.840-05:00

Over the last month, Gold and Gold stocks have done extremely well. In fact, the price of an ounce of gold has risen about $70 in the last month. With such a large move in gold, one would have expected silver to have moved aggressively higher, but, unfortunately, that has not happened. The following ratio chart shows that silver has been lagging behind gold since the beginning of last year:

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-84802838662655715982007-09-16T08:27:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:36.083-05:00

We can take this data and graph it, so that it becomes much easier to interpret. What I have done is I have taken a chart breaking down the positions of each category, and fused it with a standard candle chart of the commodity. The following chart is of silver:The areas with the red boxes represent times when the large speculators are at dangerously long positions. These correspond to the red

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-14237911477257186682007-09-13T20:30:00.000-04:002007-09-13T20:34:15.737-04:00

There are times when the decision to buy or sell a stock can be a very difficult one. Sometimes, there may be conflicting evidence for and against a decision occurring at the same time. This used to be a fairly frequent occurrence for me, and perhaps for you too. So let's have a look at the following quotation, which is, in my opinion, an intelligent way to solve this problem."My way is to

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-57079904124563065892007-09-11T20:14:00.001-04:002008-12-10T04:37:36.959-05:00

Today, gold stocks continued higher, after taking a breather over the last two days. At the same time, Gold Bullion also continued its ascent, adding on another 9 dollars.I don't normally show Point and Figure charts, but I will in this post since there have been some interesting developments in these charts in last few days. Like all my other charts, these charts are from StockCharts.com.If

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-18977015006555029472007-09-10T05:57:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:37.174-05:00

In the last post to this site, the author of the excellent blog, HeadlineCharts, made a comment regarding the Bollinger Bands of the XAU monthly chart. I was going to respond to that comment, but instead decided to write an entire post on the subject, since it was such a good point.The premise behind this upcoming chart is that periods of low volatility precede explosive moves. On the other

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-13938584612808092232007-09-07T09:16:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:37.815-05:00

As you probably know, gold and gold stocks went ballistic yesterday. The HUI Gold Bugs Index was up by 6.61%, and Gold Bullion increased by about 13 dollars. Today, however, was not as promising. The gold bullion ETF, GLD formed a bit of a shooting star on the daily chart:In addition, the entire candle is outside the upper bollinger band, and the RSI is getting uncomfortably overbought.Notice

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-52805214232347041312007-09-06T08:42:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:38.168-05:00

Between August 24th and August 27th, I have posted bullish evidence in favour of gold stocks and the TSX. One of these posts was in reference to an island reversal that had formed in the gold stocks ETFs. Let's have a closer look at what unfolded by observing a 60 minute chart:(you should hopefully be able to click on the image for a larger view)What I find interesting is that the gap up was

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-86330161987463226502007-09-04T20:54:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:38.310-05:00

One of the forces behind the recent strength in gold stocks has been a rising Euro.  This is because a rising Euro puts pressure on the US Dollar, which bolsters gold.  At this moment, the weekly Euro chart is at an interesting juncture.  As shown below, the Euro is at the apex of an ascending triangle.  This means that it must break support or resistance within the next couple weeks.  The

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-30773840948762256792007-09-03T08:53:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:38.758-05:00

The month of August has come and gone, so I thought I'd show a monthly chart of gold stocks to see how this month affected the big picture.I posted a monthly chart of the XAU a few weeks ago, and I indicated that a bull flag had formed. This pattern has not yet come to fruition, but it has not been negated either. You'll see what I mean in this following chart:Keep in mind that this chart goes

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-29574432366793653612007-08-31T09:08:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:39.081-05:00

One thing that I have often been guilty of when trading is focusing on all the bullish aspects of a chart when I am long, and concentrating on all bearish aspects of a chart when I am short. I do not do this intentionally; it happens to me, and most other traders, subliminally.But maybe Mark Douglas, author of "Trading in the Zone" can explain it better than I can:"When we expect to be right, any

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-10779680854296054262007-08-29T13:39:00.000-04:002007-08-29T14:04:32.363-04:00

I have recently been reading a book called "How to Make Profits in Commodities" by WD Gann. So far, this book has been a really tough read, and it's been hard to extract much meaningful information from it.I may discuss more about this book in a review at a later date. In the meantime, here are the main points of the book that I was able to extract:The 24 rules:1. Never risk one tenth of capital

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-5055143472002784182007-08-27T07:25:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:39.470-05:00

So, this is the first post where I'll be talking about Elliott Wave Theory. The reason it's the first time is because I'm not an expert on this topic, and there are probably other sites that can talk about it with much more expertise than me, to be frank.Nonetheless, I do feel qualified to make the statement that gold stocks almost always correct in three waves. Corrections usually begin with

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-78734715609414597312007-08-25T07:09:00.001-04:002008-12-10T04:37:40.139-05:00

So, this week was an excellent week for gold stocks. The XAU was up almost 8% for the week, Gold Bullion tacked on about 12 bucks, and, as forecasted on August 19th, the Euro rose while the US Dollar fell.Gold stocks were so strong that one index I follow, the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index, formed a powerful morning star formation. I explain why this pattern is so reliable and profitable here.

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-20103956381144486252007-08-24T11:53:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:40.492-05:00

In this post, I'm just going to show the buy signal that has developed in the TSX Bullish Percent Chart. I actually posted this chart a little over a week ago, and I showed that it was getting close to giving a buy signal. However, this statement proved to be premature, as one should always wait for confirmation, which, in this case, involves the RSI crossing back into non oversold territory.

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-53335529345810191132007-08-22T07:30:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:41.319-05:00

One of the advantages that comes with tinkering with charts for hours each day is that I occasionally stumble across something really interesting. Although I was somewhat hesitant to release this post, I have decided to anyway, as a token of my appreciation to the 1000th unique visitor to my site, and to those who have written comments on my blog.This chart relies on some principles of

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-54769638623231491062007-08-21T08:42:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:41.729-05:00

After large corrections like the one we just had, I always look at the longer-term charts to get a better perspective and to assess the damage. Even though the selling in Gold Stocks became severe at times, I think there was no long-term technical damage to the weekly charts.Here is a weekly chart of the XAU:Many gold analysts, including myself, have been saying that gold stocks were winding

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-55641488663224031732007-08-19T21:06:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:42.429-05:00

In a couple of recent posts, I pointed out that I was hoping to see the Euro bounce off its long-term rising support line. That appears to be what is happening right now. In terms of gold and gold stocks, I would view this as a positive development, since a rising Euro will put pressure on the US Dollar.In the above weekly chart of the Euro, notice that the currency broke support intra-week,

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-7304013796347411352007-08-17T07:48:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:43.002-05:00

If you thought that the level of volatility was out of control for the Dow and S&P, you should have a look at the Canadian markets if you have not done so. Yesterday, I got stopped out of all my positions on the opening. The TSX in Toronto was down about 200 points at this time, but a few hours later it was down nearly 600 points.If you think that sounds bad, the Venture Exchange, in Vancouver

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-33370336798827735652007-08-15T16:27:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:43.229-05:00

Over the last week, I have posted evidence suggesting that gold stocks have bottomed out. Despite my best efforts, my posts have turned out to be incorrect, and I have lost money because of this. Nonetheless, I still feel that it would be imprudent to sell at this time. Here is a chart of GDX, the gold stocks ETF:The main thing is to keep calm, and to continue to look at the charts objectively

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-18198380435159846732007-08-14T18:02:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:43.935-05:00

I have already made one post today, so I'll keep this one short, and let the charts do the talking. I will say, that if you are like me, and you own gold stocks, then you are probably in a bit of pain right now. This post is meant to show that it would probably be imprudent to sell gold stocks at this time. Here is a daily CandleVolume chart of GDX:Next, let's have an update on the US Dollar.

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-26859987816418549722007-08-14T08:54:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:44.362-05:00

When it comes to charting, very few things are known with certainty. But I do know one thing for certain, and that is either the US Dollar or the Euro will have to break support soon. It's mathematically impossible for this not to happen. You'll see what I mean when you look at these charts:The chart above is a weekly chart of the Euro. The Euro has been quite weak lately, but at least it is

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-6314190619735082532007-08-11T07:57:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:44.643-05:00

Despite the tremendous volatility this last week, I think that gold and gold stocks held up very well. In particular, I thought gold's performance on Friday was outstanding. The metal was up almost 12 dollars, while everything else was in the red.You may have read about this, but the Fed added about $38 billion of liquidity to the system on Friday, which was supposed to help stabilize the

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-12523054019322944732007-08-10T08:46:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:45.014-05:00

If you are interested in understanding where the price of gold is headed, it is essential to always keep an eye on the US Dollar. Since the US Dollar is at a critical position, it is especially important to keep an eye on it now.As mentioned in my previous post, the US Dollar is at a major area of support. To my disappointment, the currency has bounced off the 80 level for a second time, and I

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-72691142978517803542007-08-07T12:07:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:45.623-05:00

Everyday, I analyze 70 charts that are, in one way or another, related to the gold market. Out of these, the overwhelming majority are reading bullish. I'll show one example of just one of these bullish indications.The first chart shows the relationship between gold and aluminum. I encourage you to check out this link, so that the following chart will make more sense.As you can see, the last 4

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-34788663278050778692007-08-06T18:25:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:46.193-05:00

Today was one of those rare days where the American markets were open, but the Canadian markets were closed. However, it is still possible to determine how the Canadian markets would have done, had they been open. This post will be about how to synthetically determine the value of the TSX in these occasions.All you do is take the Canadian iShares ETF, which trades in New York, ticker symbol EWC

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-33443175198649530062007-08-05T07:53:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:46.652-05:00

Since we are nearing the 20th anniversary of the October 1987 stock market crash, I started thinking about how the crash affected gold and gold stocks. The following charts were meant to satisfy my own curiosity, but I will post them on here, since you may find them as interesting as I did.Firstly, lets have a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the date of the crash, just so that we

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-79613835427672864992007-08-04T08:45:00.001-04:002008-12-10T04:37:48.367-05:00

The excellent website, StockCharts.com, has a section called PerfCharts, where you can create charts that look like the one below. The purpose of these charts is to look at which market sectors are outperforming or under performing. The chart below is the PerfChart that I like to look at.This chart looks back 1 month, and tells you what sectors have been doing the best, and, as you can see,

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-47141058677442625192007-08-03T08:20:00.001-04:002008-12-10T04:37:48.704-05:00

The other day, I joined a forum that discusses the fundamentals and technicals behind the gold market. One thing I noticed, at the bottom of the page, it said "Most users ever online was 1,162, 05-06-2006." So, that got me thinking, and led me to look at a gold chart at that date. Below is the chart I was looking at, and I have circled the date in question.Interestingly, the date that had the

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-59672319850895025082007-08-02T08:32:00.000-04:002008-12-10T04:37:49.030-05:00

The TSX had a rough day yesterday, and dropped all the way to major support, but the good news is that no major support was broken. This means that the TSX must not fall today in order for me to remain optimistic. Here is an update of the TSX chart.It seems to me that I was not the only investor looking at this level of support. Notice how the key level was penetrated intraday, but actually

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-60997518263679359192007-07-31T15:28:00.001-04:002008-12-10T04:37:49.318-05:00

All Charts Courtesy of StockCharts.comI'm just quickly going to go over a few charts on the TSX today. The TSX is Canada's main stock index, and it has many resource companies on it, so we want to see it rise when we are holding resource stocks, including gold stocks.The first chart shows a daily chart of the TSX. I have made some annotations, which probably don't need further explanation.The

Danny Merkelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14869884407300757971noreply@blogger.com0