Friday, July 20, 2007

The Euro, the US Dollar, and Gold Stocks

So, it's been 30 days since I started my blog, and in that time I have posted 43 articles, under four different sections. For the 10 people who have visited my blog, I hope that you have enjoyed them. (I'm just joking, and I fully realize that the first month of starting a blog is always the most difficult. )

Anyway, in the last week, gold stocks have been doing better than I had even imagined. They have broken through all sorts of resistance, despite being uncomfortably overbought. I expect gold stocks to continue down this upward path for many weeks to come, as this is what my weekly charts have been showing me for a while now.

However, gold stocks will not continue up in one straight line. There will be corrections along the way, and I think we may be approaching one of those times. I'll show a few charts to support my case. Firstly, below is a daily chart of the Euro.

The two things to note in the above chart is how dangerously overbought the Euro is, and the candle formation that I have circled. The candle in the circle is a gravestone doji. For more information on this candle, please refer to the How To Read My Charts section of this site.

The next chart is a daily chart of the US Dollar:

The aspects of this chart to notice here is how oversold the US Dollar Index is, as well as the candle formations that have formed recently. Although not pictured here, the weekly chart of the US Dollar shows that it is right on support, which I feel will be broken, but probably not right now. This is all short-term gold bearish.

Finally, here is a daily chart of the XAU. You will notice that the XAU is right under gap resistance right now, which is not a good sign, in the short-term.

So, what does this all mean? It means that we may be in for a small correction, which is an absolutely healthy and essential part of all bull markets. To be more specific, I feel that the XAU chart will likely top out on Monday, July 23.

I hope it does not sound like I am contradicting myself, since I've been posting bullish evidence for gold in the last few posts. These items are still valid, and the signals they generated are still in effect. But they were all on a weekly time frame, which is a much longer time frame. The charts I have posted today are all daily, and are on a much shorter time frame.

If you see something in the above charts that I have missed, please make a comment, or send an email to: Thanks for stopping by.

1 comment:

RedGoldCU said...

Danny wrote:

"To be more specific, I feel that the XAU chart will likely top out on Monday, July 23".

Hello Danny,

On my birthday of all dates??!!!??? Thanks a lot my friend! (; (;

Technical analysis is great, but please Danny, don't "shoot yourself in the foot" by over reacting to OVERBOUGHT readings. You've put in waaay too much work in this excellent website, and your understanding of TA.

Throwing up a caution flag on an overbought reading is fine, but wait for a substancial price break before closing out your long positions/holdings.

Take your positions in high quality gold shares, some physical gold just in case things get nasty, no IMO -no- GLD or other form of "paper gold." Paper is the exact reason why all of this is starting to unravel. Fiat= no backing of anything -real.-

Then, you and I should go off to the AMAZON for the next year or two. Yes... really, the jungle. I've waited better than 20 years for another shot at this. It's here, right now, period. Amazon my friend. How are your hut building skills ??? (:

All the Best,
RedGold CU