Thursday, November 1, 2007

A Technical Look at the Price of Crude Oil

The price of oil has been in the news as of late, so I thought I would throw a chart up showing the weekly price action of it. The chart below is actually of an ETF that tracks the price of oil. The ticker symbol is USO, whereas the ticker symbol of oil itself is $WTIC.

This chart contains a lot of information, so it may take some time to make sense of it. I would recommend clicking on the image for a larger view.

This chart utilizes the new indicator I mentioned in the previous post. I have outlined the overbought territory in red, and the oversold area in green. The accuracy of this indicator is enhanced when used in conjunction with the RSI. Besides that, the annotations are fairly self explanatory.

The other aspect that you may have noticed is that this Exchange Traded Fund is nearing a potential double top. This combined with the fact that the RSI and that the new indicator are both overbought as well, is not a bullish combination.

Now, I am very bullish on oil in the medium and long-term, but, that being said, I do think that prices may have gotten ahead of themselves, and a short-term correction may be due. I also think that the price of oil itself will certainly find round number resistance at the $100 dollar per barrel area, which it is near currently.

Like always, I have no way of predicting the future, but I hope that, at the very least, analysis such as this, can help put the odds in our favour. Thanks for visiting.


Dereck said...

Fascinating Danny. I too think oil may have out run itself but remain fairly bullish on it for the medium term. Question for you: excluding other things, what is a good way, in your opinion, of relating oil to say metals?

Danny Merkel said...

Hey Dereck,

That is a really good question. I think I'll have to answer that one in a separate post soon.

It would be better to illustrate some points with charts rather than with words as well.

Dereck said...

Well said. I've been thinking that it might be interesting because, both are commodities in their own rights, but both have significantly different impacts on the economy. In other words, metals for instance, are considered safer investments to hedge against inflation, while, oil for instance, often contributes to that very inflation.